CBO Sounds the Alarm: Trump Spending Package Could Deepen Deficit, Leave Millions Uninsured

New analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows $2.4 trillion in added debt and nearly 11 million more Americans uninsured by 2034.

The latest analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paints a sobering picture of the sweeping tax-and-spending proposal backed by President Donald Trump and currently moving through Congress.

According to the CBO, the package — dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" — would reduce taxes by $3.75 trillion over the next decade but also increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion in that same time frame. Perhaps more troubling, the plan would dump nearly 11 million people into the ranks of the uninsured by 2034.

Those are not partisan attacks. Those are the projections laid out by the agency Congress created to keep budget debates honest.

Despite that, the CBO’s findings have come under fire from the White House and GOP leaders. Some are even questioning whether the CBO should continue to exist. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise went so far as to say it was “valid” to raise the idea of getting rid of the office altogether. That should raise red flags for anyone who values transparency and fiscal responsibility.

Let’s also note who this bill helps — and who it most certainly will hurt.

In addition to reviving and extending the tax cuts first passed in 2017, the bill proposes eliminating taxes on tipped income and funding a $350 billion expansion in border security and deportation efforts. But the offsetting cuts would land squarely on the shoulders of low- and moderate income Americans. Work requirements for Medicaid and food stamps would begin in 2026, and the CBO previously estimated this would result in 4 million fewer people receiving nutrition assistance each month. Millions more would lose their coverage because of changes that would make coverage in the Affordable Care Act marketplace more expensive and harder to get.

Health care is once again a battleground. As I’ve warned for years, we’re watching a quiet but deliberate effort to undo previous steps Congress took to expand coverage under the guise of "reform." Cutting access to Medicaid and making it harder and more expensive for moderate-income families to buy coverage in the ACA marketplace may help balance spreadsheets in a narrow sense, but it doesn't address what truly ails our health system. Instead, those proposals make the human cost even steeper.

The CBO’s director, Phillip Swagel — a Republican appointee with a background in the George W. Bush administration — leads an office that includes more than 270 nonpartisan experts. Their projections may not please everyone, but they remain one of the last reliable and credible beacons of fiscal truth-telling in Washington.

If Washington is serious about fixing what’s broken in this country — whether that’s runaway health costs, an unstable safety net or rising national debt — we need more transparency into the true contributors of waste – big health insurance conglomerates like UnitedHealth Group, Cigna and Centene – not American families trying to get by.